The dollar jumped from R$ 4.99 on Friday 23 October to between R$ 5.42 and R$ 5.60 at Monday's open, the first session after Lula's re-election. For anyone considering a US property purchase funded in Brazilian reais, this does not make the purchase cheaper. It makes it roughly 11% more expensive.
What actually happened to the exchange rate?
Lula (PT) was re-elected on 25 October 2026 with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The result reversed the first round of 4 October, in which Flávio led 47.03% to 45.16% — the first time since 1989 that a first-round runner-up has won the runoff.
At the following open, the dollar rose between 8.65% and 12.25% depending on source and timing, touching R$ 5.6047 intraday. Analysts attributed the move less to the result itself than to congressional arithmetic: without a working majority, the passage of fiscal measures is uncertain, and fiscal risk is what the currency prices.
A single day of currency movement is not a trend. The same market that opened 12% higher can give part of it back within the week. Capital allocation decisions should not be made on one session's quote.
Does a weaker real make US property cheaper or more expensive?
More expensive, and the arithmetic is direct. A US$ 350,000 property cost R$ 1,746,500 at R$ 4.99. At R$ 5.60, the same property costs R$ 1,960,000 — R$ 213,500 more for the identical asset.
This is worth stating plainly, because a great deal of marketing implies the opposite: that a rising dollar is the signal to buy abroad. It is not. A rising dollar is the signal that your real bought less. Whoever was already positioned in dollars gained. Whoever converts now has lost purchasing power.
So why do Brazilians keep buying in the United States?
Because the decision is rarely about the month's quote. In the Florida Realtors profile of international transactions, Brazil accounted for 7% of foreign sales in the state, US$ 762 million in volume, with roughly 68% of Brazilian buyers non-resident in the US.
Nationally, the National Association of Realtors recorded 67,100 homes purchased by foreign buyers between April 2025 and March 2026, totalling US$ 45.3 billion — down 14% in units and 19.1% in dollar volume against the prior period. Florida captured 20% of that activity.
The underlying motive is jurisdiction, not timing. A buyer is trading exposure to one rule set for exposure to another, and accepting that at certain moments this costs more in reais.
Three situations, three different answers
If you already hold dollars. Your position did not worsen — in relative terms it improved. The dollar price of the asset did not change because of a Brazilian election.
If you have dollar income. DSCR financing qualifies the loan on the property's rental income rather than your personal US income, so you are not converting the full purchase price.
If you hold only reais. Converting the full value of a house on a day of currency stress is the worst of the three positions. With a 25% to 30% down payment through financing, exposure at the moment of purchase falls to roughly a third: on a US$ 350,000 property you convert about US$ 105,000, not US$ 350,000. The gap between Friday's rate and today's narrows from R$ 213,500 to roughly R$ 64,000.
Financing is not only leverage. For a buyer whose wealth sits in reais, it is primarily a reduction of currency exposure at the moment of purchase.
What the election does not change
A foreign national may buy US residential property without a visa, a green card or a Social Security Number. The purchase can be held personally or through a US LLC, and closing can be completed remotely through a title company. None of that depends on who governs Brazil.
What changes is the cost in reais of crossing that bridge, and how favourable the window is on any given week.
Sources
- Tribunal Regional Eleitoral de São Paulo — 2026 runoff result
- ISTOÉ Dinheiro — exchange rate on 26 October 2026
- Money Times — currency open, 26 October 2026
- National Association of Realtors — foreign buyers, April 2025 to March 2026
- Florida Realtors — international transactions profile, Florida
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